UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. Nolan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee0c4d3aeed076fcc2ad73dee382dcc11ee9d4ee5adfbc9b12552e47b38f7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Susurkaevof Susurkaev, Nolan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Nolan | 32c | 34,331$11,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,017.62 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Susurkaev | 64c | 17,249$11,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,229.52 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Susurkaev | 76c | 12,433$9,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.58 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Nolan | 13c | 6,399$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.96 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Susurkaev | 70c | 3,251$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.41 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Nolan | 9c | 3,010$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.9 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Nolan | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Nolan | 20c | 1,805$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.76 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Susurkaev | 49c | 1,471$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.19 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Nolan | 13c | 1,146$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…4ceebacked Nolan | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Susurkaev | 73c | 780.04$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.43 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Susurkaev | 68c | 775.25$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Nolan | 12c | 629.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Susurkaev | 75c | 529.04$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Nolan | 13c | 460.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Nolan | 11c | 419.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Nolan | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked Susurkaev | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Susurkaev | 68c | 296.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…9bd0backed Nolan | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Nolan | 20c | 253.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Susurkaev | 79c | 250.92$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Nolan | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Nolan | 31c | 192.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293d…3ef4backed Nolan | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Nolan | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…ce4bbacked Nolan | 12c | 166.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5791backed Nolan | 11c | 142.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Nolan | 49c | 126.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…9173backed Nolan | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked Nolan | 12c | 116.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Susurkaev | 75c | 115.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked Nolan | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…6934backed Nolan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…285bbacked Nolan | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Susurkaev | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Susurkaev | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Nolan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Susurkaev | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Nolan | 35c | 98.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Nolan | 11c | 96.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Susurkaev | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Susurkaev | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…8eb2backed Nolan | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Susurkaev | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Nolan | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Susurkaev | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc985…1e7dbacked Susurkaev | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…4a9cbacked Susurkaev | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…7ee5backed Susurkaev | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. Nolanthis page
- UFC 319: Andrade vs. GodinezGodinez won
- UFC 319: Barboza vs. KloseKlose won
- UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Page won
- UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevChimaev won
- UFC 319: Elliott vs. AsakuraElliott won
- UFC 319: Hooper vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC 319: Idiris vs. MoralesMorales won
- UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Murphy won
- UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Prates won
- UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa Silva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.