UFC · resolved market

UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93e693909aa5623918f798ffc8539b53e9aacb245eb9b1cddf10876c58acc8e

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Silva of Silva , Barbosa
Resolved: Aug 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5172…0581backed Barbosa	2c	6,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Barbosa	79c	4,657$3,698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,697.55	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Barbosa	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Barbosa	2c	3,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Silva	23c	3,469$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,663.14	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Barbosa	73c	2,515$1,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,843.64	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Barbosa	77c	2,225$1,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.33	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Barbosa	35c	2,090$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.46	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Silva	28c	1,942$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,403.37	121	34.7%42 W · 79 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Barbosa	37c	1,550$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked Silva	65c	1,539$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.57	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Silva	63c	1,326$835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.65	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Barbosa	38c	1,321$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Silva	64c	1,220$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.35	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Silva	62c	1,166$723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.92	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Barbosa	36c	964.71$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Silva	63c	775$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.75	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Barbosa	37c	748.08$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.79	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Silva	28c	649.36$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.77	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Barbosa	53c	500$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.03	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Barbosa	35c	499.97$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.99	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Silva	63c	499.77$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.92	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Barbosa	76c	469.53$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.3	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Silva	30c	465.71$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.71	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Barbosa	35c	463.77$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.32	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Silva	65c	433$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.55	185	60%111 W · 74 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Barbosa	36c	419.44$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe385…54bcbacked Silva	64c	411.99$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.31	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Silva	65c	400$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Silva	43c	400$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed Silva	28c	396.43$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.43	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Silva	20c	394.74$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.79	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfca8…4f41backed Barbosa	36c	300.45$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Silva	63c	300$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Silva	64c	299.99$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Silva	18c	268.8$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.42	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Barbosa	33c	265.63$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.92	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Barbosa	35c	250$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Silva	19c	231.2$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.56	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f73…bfacbacked Silva	38c	195.97$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Silva	65c	181.53$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.53	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Barbosa	48c	175.13$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.22	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2201…9071backed Silva	65c	174.25$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.99	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.9wins	+0.23per pick	62cpaid	+27%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Silva	62c	154.99$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.65	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Silva	65c	153.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Silva	65c	153.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Barbosa	36c	137$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Barbosa	36c	130.56$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	136	47.8%65 W · 71 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35a…2157backed Barbosa	36c	111.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Barbosa	71c	100$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Barbosa	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…9dc3backed Barbosa	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Barbosa	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Silva	64c	99.99$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Barbosa	36c	97.22$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Silva	64c	85.99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.96	90	62.2%56 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked Barbosa	37c	81.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9693backed Silva	28c	71.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+157.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Barbosa	36c	69.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Silva	65c	64.57$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.6	22	72.7%16 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Silva	64c	62.72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.72	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Barbosa	36c	59.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Barbosa	36c	57.2$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	16	50%8 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Silva	65c	56$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Silva	65c	53.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Silva	65c	52$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Barbosa	35c	52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Silva	26c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Silva	64c	39.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+4.1wins	+0.18per pick	56cpaid	+40%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Silva	64c	31.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb6…5189backed Silva	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x790d…9995backed Silva	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x413f…67c3backed Silva	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0167…8525backed Silva	65c	26.12$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.14	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0448…5974backed Barbosa	80c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Barbosa	79c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3114…e793backed Barbosa	77c	18.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	69cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0423…018abacked Silva	66c	16.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa this page
UFC 319: Andrade vs. GodinezGodinez won
UFC 319: Barboza vs. KloseKlose won
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Page won
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevChimaev won
UFC 319: Elliott vs. AsakuraElliott won
UFC 319: Hooper vs. HernandezHernandez won
UFC 319: Idiris vs. MoralesMorales won
UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Murphy won
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Prates won
UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. NolanSusurkaev won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event