Fed Rates · resolved market
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ab04c1da2051ee27f69f3dabd766be2ce27b4f136db4215b8d29c4b08656c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $637,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $655,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $637,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 1c | 234,315$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…8b87backed Yes | 1c | 118,664$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…0b21backed Yes | 2c | 81,461$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…8fa8backed Yes | 4c | 21,506$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…afa7backed Yes | 1c | 14,840$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 12,256$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…946abacked Yes | 1c | 6,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20d…85ecbacked Yes | 1c | 6,458$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…8308backed Yes | 1c | 6,084$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…f303backed Yes | 1c | 4,601$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…9f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,381$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…c3f8backed Yes | 4c | 4,160$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…d98abacked Yes | 1c | 4,022$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed Yes | 2c | 3,410$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…3788backed Yes | 1c | 3,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,849$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…718ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,962$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…fb87backed Yes | 1c | 1,904$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 13c | 1,869$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e2…3eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,833$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0573…0099backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…8a38backed Yes | 1c | 1,166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…56f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 4c | 916.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…1887backed Yes | 2c | 640$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0960backed Yes | 3c | 462.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 22c | 412.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 8c | 384.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d501backed Yes | 3c | 322.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…e787backed Yes | 30c | 308.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…f0b9backed Yes | 23c | 280.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 70c | 267.72$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7499…dfcdbacked Yes | 26c | 194.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 35c | 189.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 161.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 71c | 158.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 74c | 147.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 9c | 139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…7ae7backed Yes | 13c | 102.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…c1b7backed Yes | 33c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.