Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe30e04e5d993ca371f8299f6ee0094278b750ff6f49deae6a8ea83220923084b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 12c | 1,961$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.29 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,864$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.12 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 1,290$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 75c | 1,227$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.03 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,067$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 72c | 900$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…5850backed Yes | 10c | 492.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcf…4c67backed Yes | 21c | 465.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 5c | 424.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 3c | 391.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 341$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…33b5backed Yes | 27c | 293.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 14c | 287.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6999backed Yes | 25c | 285.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed Yes | 11c | 260$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 74c | 254$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 21c | 240$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 26c | 220$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 215.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 215$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 183$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 161.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 157$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 153.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 68c | 146.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 116.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…88b8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…af77backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…14bcbacked Yes | 26c | 57.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…c40fbacked Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 58c | 46.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…f6b6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 70c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 75c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.