World Politics · resolved market
Will there be no next Transport Secretary of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf14f22d846d295273d529dc89f864c284b805a5ef8cdecd311edc1de18b4a73f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8608…27aabacked No | 3c | 3,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 58c | 1,330$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.13 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 926.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 55c | 915.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 10c | 780$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…bbcebacked No | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 36c | 737.08$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 2c | 613.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed No | 53c | 609.95$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 599.99$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5169…0455backed Yes | 31c | 596.35$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 595.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 328.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.95 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 53c | 223.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 70c | 215.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 70c | 215.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 68c | 212$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 64c | 168$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 159.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked No | 65c | 154.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed No | 70c | 88.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 81.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 74.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 73.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 64.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 61.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 35c | 52.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 45c | 39.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 69c | 32.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no next Transport Secretary of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Anneliese Midgley be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Dan Jarvis be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Lisa Nandy be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Sally Jameson be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.