Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x337100967945465e72bb276d6db87d9d73c9c6ecae16c30994bb0fcf6ce975d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 72c | 2,527$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.87 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,650$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 6c | 1,650$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,294$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 9c | 399.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 77c | 336.77$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 10c | 320$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 66c | 304.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 269$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 22c | 223$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 16c | 214.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 27c | 209.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 202.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…dd74backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 10c | 194.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 38c | 189.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…4eecbacked No | 34c | 185$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 54c | 179.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…3b27backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…1761backed Yes | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 24c | 148.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…7524backed Yes | 42c | 147$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb8…be80backed Yes | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…31bebacked Yes | 42c | 142$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…313bbacked Yes | 42c | 137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 135.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…ac6dbacked Yes | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…292fbacked Yes | 42c | 134$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedf…9c59backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 71c | 122.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…8aaebacked No | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…fe03backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…c48cbacked No | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…0f47backed No | 58c | 109$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…7c77backed No | 58c | 108$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…43dfbacked No | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 66c | 106.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…4db5backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…a325backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 30c | 104.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…00efbacked No | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…9e18backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…dff1backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…9b8ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…f87abacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 97.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…d74bbacked No | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…a957backed No | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 57.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4e02backed Yes | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 76c | 56.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 77c | 53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…1402backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…fffebacked No | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 60c | 28.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…5051backed Yes | 66c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.