TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x731a…033fbacked Yes78c11,645$9,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked No4c1,600$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+689.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No41c1,462$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No56c1,183$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No27c1,101$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.434112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfa4…60d6backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No26c931.63$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1814425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Yes51c924.36$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No41c902$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ab…1e42backed No3c800$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No47c638$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5311…3717backed Yes80c552.63$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes51c545.09$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No5c538.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes51c511.73$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.75425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No32c486.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick37cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes48c469.01$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes44c460.94$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No22c425.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked No52c405.56$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da4…eddebacked No17c399.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3e…5bc9backed No28c390$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe24…5d95backed Yes80c381.25$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes31c305.22$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes79c286.33$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No47c270.85$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c241.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.744829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No43c222.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.57841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb279…8ae6backed No23c219.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c99…6efbbacked No40c216.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c5…e321backed No19c203.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec94…5060backed Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…3a26backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa35…4f01backed Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x039a…e2acbacked No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8493…1200backed Yes51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539b…624cbacked No11c199.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes28c196.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e34…9434backed Yes59c191.83$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.12825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a0…04d4backed No22c190.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No65c170.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.181428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes60c155$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes31c150.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.36540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb61…dadabacked No13c149$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes33c148.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995221.2%11 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-67.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes22c142.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.645721.1%12 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x50b9…6731backed Yes80c138.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…0c29backed No73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37dd…7849backed Yes79c136.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef3…dde9backed Yes80c132.5$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked No19c127.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa115…a40abacked Yes80c118.75$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d5…6396backed Yes44c114.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No28c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.870%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes46c108.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1e…0c20backed No19c104.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes48c103.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9863…79ffbacked Yes79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes64c99.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No18c99.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc318…d82abacked No72c98.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e7…68e0backed Yes23c97.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c95.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8213932.4%45 W · 94 L-16.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7dd8…7aedbacked Yes49c95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No25c94.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.19563.6%2 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08dd…2555backed Yes31c89.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes31c87.87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No30c86.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked No19c84.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c81.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.293435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800e…691bbacked Yes59c78.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a4…dbc9backed No42c71.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes35c70.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.882250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f25…940dbacked No39c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes19c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.71127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked No50c67.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No60c65.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.653735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No39c57.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.291030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No66c52.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.481020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+115.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes59c51.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.255731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No59c48.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes73c48.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.128129.6%24 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes49c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.441190.9%10 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.52per pick39cpaid+165.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Yes72c40.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes48c39.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.346327%17 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1abe…f19fbacked Yes43c38.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb307…9c25backed Yes75c38.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No63c38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+138.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes27c37.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.69333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf0…9180backed Yes27c37.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c37.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.939215.2%14 W · 78 L-16.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-68.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa589…aa13backed Yes75c37.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes76c37.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.043293.8%30 W · 2 L+6.6wins+0.21per pick73cpaid+28.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+47.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2814…5596backed No47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.