TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7bc…81cebacked No35c2,796$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No36c2,021$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.941030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c1,902$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.7514425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f48…e69bbacked No46c1,885$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8238…ca37backed No38c1,685$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes10c1,647$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.261010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66b…02aabacked Yes6c1,426$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes19c1,215$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.79425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes16c1,211$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.993435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c1,186$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.65841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No40c911.12$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.1311634.5%40 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No47c767$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes18c751.29$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.74714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes18c730.85$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c726.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.951274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c724.12$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.885731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefe9…7aaabacked No39c680.89$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc759…b965backed Yes11c668.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked No80c661.55$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes59c642.26$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.67757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes8c577.85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.88147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+165%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No79c576$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cfd…b94fbacked No38c564.63$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c556.66$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0813932.4%45 W · 94 L-16.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Yes52c513.12$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052010%2 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes23c425.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.561020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+115.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5657…e56abacked No35c421$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff6f…0ca7backed No35c417.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked No47c414.96$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Yes67c399.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed No37c378.38$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe0c…4a55backed No35c366.23$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes13c354.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.66130%0 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed No33c350$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes58c343.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes14c302.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.63650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b3…dad6backed No35c283.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa370…dbccbacked No36c280.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb5…7c25backed No35c278.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d5…6396backed Yes22c274.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc19…22c5backed No35c274.59$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa6…bf98backed No35c274$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No68c269$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.422646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes9c265.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4b…783cbacked Yes26c260$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd920…61a9backed Yes40c253.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes51c253.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes9c252$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07ee…7ee6backed Yes67c249.52$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes16c243.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.972250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94df…b5c4backed No35c238.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6607…5bd9backed No79c235.96$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.916100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0c4…73eabacked No35c234.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081d…4b0abacked Yes62c233.77$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c226.67$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.693046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c215.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcced…2a01backed Yes7c214.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde8…b3d3backed Yes62c213.32$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No36c211.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes11c202.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.12623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd1d…ca4cbacked Yes57c199.68$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d5…2979backed Yes64c195.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…e913backed Yes61c193.44$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c192.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.07610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff89…96d9backed Yes65c184.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes16c181.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.34382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29d…7faabacked Yes65c181.54$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No29c178$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.44650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+214.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5561…5fc0backed Yes65c177.59$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe4…758bbacked Yes64c177.17$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab94…1a0dbacked Yes65c177.05$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x579f…6a08backed Yes65c176.92$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1501…afd9backed Yes65c175.38$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e6…6979backed Yes63c174.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f3…19debacked Yes65c173.85$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb364…8b69backed Yes65c173$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c5…2d63backed Yes65c169.92$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4935…dfdabacked Yes13c169.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf835…8726backed Yes62c169.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…4e76backed Yes62c169.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87d…c1e4backed Yes62c169.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f6…4a09backed Yes65c169.23$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0a…0caabacked Yes64c169.15$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x301b…374fbacked Yes64c165.75$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes23c163.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.92100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes48c163.24$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.066327%17 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1289…fe88backed Yes64c160.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb54…f993backed No59c159.87$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040a…1b71backed Yes66c159.61$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb528…6332backed Yes66c159.34$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes14c158.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.095721.1%12 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f8d…ec02backed Yes65c158.46$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4233…ee69backed Yes61c157.38$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7f…d1c7backed Yes64c156.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d93…c671backed Yes60c152.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c93…547cbacked Yes65c152.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No36c152.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x539b…624cbacked Yes22c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.