IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb44c5c4c3cfbd4e8be87ae6b9f7ed021e3f26dce06f7b7f1a3e8a8f412eb626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 1c | 3,111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 2,843$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.87 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 39c | 1,912$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 25c | 1,321$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.41 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 910.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed No | 80c | 891.3$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 855$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.92 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 73c | 747.05$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 26c | 730.92$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 661.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…50e2backed No | 73c | 629.77$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked No | 78c | 606.05$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 10c | 550$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 537.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 471.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 3c | 456.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 344.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…6a73backed Yes | 40c | 321.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 40c | 274.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 221.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 206.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…1063backed No | 75c | 193.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…0720backed No | 75c | 177.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8137…941abacked No | 74c | 169.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked No | 62c | 166$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 164.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…84d7backed No | 75c | 157.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 156.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 155.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 28c | 153.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9070…e32cbacked Yes | 16c | 149.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 148.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…9e1bbacked No | 74c | 137.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…02b3backed No | 75c | 134.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37e…fc4dbacked No | 75c | 134.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 35c | 131$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…64a1backed Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 60c | 124$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca6…7e32backed No | 75c | 120.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539b…624cbacked Yes | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed Yes | 14c | 118$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…ffc0backed No | 77c | 108.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 80c | 100.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked No | 60c | 100.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…90f3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…aa84backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…0cb9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked No | 75c | 95.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b42…ca29backed No | 71c | 92.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 80.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 78.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…3d5dbacked No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed No | 78c | 59.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 55c | 58.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…2d3dbacked No | 64c | 50.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…09fdbacked Yes | 30c | 49.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 58c | 42.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…5eedbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked No | 67c | 39.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 52c | 36.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 62c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 62c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…ff8bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…70e1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?this page
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.