IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fcc440e1b0a5baa55283c20aec089e457eff635eeefc576e51e2e5065e4cb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,710$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 1,361$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 13c | 878.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 16c | 700$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 9c | 570.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Yes | 4c | 545.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 3c | 499.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 406.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 389.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked No | 78c | 299.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 232.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 222.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 209.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 21c | 203.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf35a…fa10backed Yes | 7c | 199.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 79c | 132.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 76c | 106.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 26c | 104.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 23c | 102.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…5c41backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 99.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…6784backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 16c | 90.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…f3dabacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 74.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 57.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 18c | 56.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…3776backed No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7421…bb49backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 22.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?this page
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.