IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa51fc45da9af7144eb0acbe2fad913099b17df4c2380987b9eda2bf1979fa2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 1,988$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.98 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 1,869$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…81cebacked No | 64c | 1,600$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 42c | 1,182$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes | 35c | 999.98$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 2c | 986.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 788.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 778.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 36c | 750.77$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 547.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 20c | 538$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 32c | 499.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 489.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 44c | 455.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 2c | 426.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 403.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 30c | 361.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 308.08$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…75eebacked No | 62c | 290.22$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 14c | 282.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 37c | 270.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 11c | 265.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…f4a4backed No | 64c | 255$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 244.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed No | 59c | 232$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 74c | 201$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Yes | 36c | 198.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 10c | 191.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 185.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…ca4cbacked No | 63c | 179.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a12abacked No | 64c | 176.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…6a08backed No | 64c | 176.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 36c | 168.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…8bfdbacked No | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…87bbbacked No | 69c | 160.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…6d77backed No | 66c | 160.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ab82backed No | 64c | 159.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…490fbacked No | 64c | 158.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 153.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…cbd9backed No | 65c | 150.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…eee2backed No | 64c | 139.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…2800backed No | 68c | 135.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930f…b282backed No | 65c | 127.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…d911backed No | 68c | 126.47$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…573abacked Yes | 35c | 121.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 18c | 117.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…6758backed No | 73c | 102.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…f9c0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 97.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 81.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539b…624cbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked No | 78c | 69.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 68.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 42c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…2ffcbacked No | 64c | 61.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…6cc4backed Yes | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…f6d1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 68c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…ec39backed No | 78c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?this page
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.