IPO · resolved market
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe478b515162e00d4b682e2e480e847487f5e824bbc5c7c1d4587ee68bcb4befe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 1c | 14,169$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…d217backed No | 0c | 3,671$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…0565backed No | 1c | 2,381$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 12c | 986.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 3c | 916.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…6396backed Yes | 79c | 648.82$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 548.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 452.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed No | 22c | 437.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 420.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…bc48backed No | 26c | 322.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 305.28$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 9c | 235.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 229.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 218.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…3324backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 180.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 21c | 175$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 174.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 128.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 66c | 99.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 17c | 64.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 18c | 55.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 40c | 49.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 42c | 38.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 52c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…6c64backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stripe’s market cap be between $100B and $120B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stripe’s market cap be between $120B and $140B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stripe’s market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.