Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a65bae6ed48d6000acf48b89a6037de07317c6bbb87ea8ef3e1e23509128832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,014$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 713.12$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.44 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…27aabacked No | 11c | 569.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 55c | 485.14$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 2c | 411.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 78c | 350.06$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 179.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 26c | 151.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 101.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…8ea2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 57c | 92.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…71a2backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 75c | 66.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…bc0abacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 42c | 58.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 23c | 53.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 74c | 51.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…244abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…6ac0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…cf3cbacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…2fd9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +214.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…e8f6backed No | 33c | 36.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 79c | 34.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 71c | 31.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…38ddbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…91d7backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…47a7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…1772backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 59c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 70c | 18.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.