Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2809a0d228c6c1076cde9cf1ad35c8ce138314776954d4333907c8559297685d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,069$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 65c | 1,601$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.89 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 50c | 1,138$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.36 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed No | 47c | 532.81$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 47c | 427.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 69c | 400$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 57c | 381.98$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 51c | 294.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 240.1$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 50c | 210.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 196.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 40c | 167.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…8c7bbacked Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 33c | 151.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 136$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 49c | 98.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 91.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked No | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 31c | 81.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 40c | 62.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 44c | 56.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 73c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…b9eabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 52c | 47.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…abedbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 56c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…47a7backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…e294backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…04d0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.