Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbdb27aee89c1bb0533a33e7b61032ac138d99b67f7350652195d57a31432300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 40c | 2,531$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8846…0154backed No | 5c | 1,844$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 1c | 1,706$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 74c | 1,669$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.04 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 36c | 1,662$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…52c5backed No | 7c | 1,537$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…27aabacked No | 9c | 1,500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 16c | 1,489$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 33c | 1,450$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.17 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,228$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…39b2backed No | 9c | 1,190$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 1c | 1,065$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes | 11c | 1,033$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…2fe9backed Yes | 8c | 985$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…ffd2backed Yes | 7c | 985$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd631…d198backed Yes | 9c | 983$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…4fd4backed Yes | 9c | 983$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…6cdfbacked Yes | 9c | 982$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…24d8backed Yes | 9c | 980$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…382fbacked Yes | 8c | 980$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…ff8cbacked Yes | 9c | 977$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…85debacked Yes | 9c | 977$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…5346backed Yes | 7c | 974.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…7e5bbacked Yes | 7c | 965$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…4de0backed Yes | 9c | 963$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96f…0276backed Yes | 9c | 956$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 7c | 955.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e6…9811backed Yes | 6c | 953$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +670%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…d17cbacked Yes | 9c | 944.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…7434backed Yes | 9c | 942$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…3ba4backed Yes | 8c | 935$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…1285backed Yes | 10c | 820$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 763.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…9d90backed Yes | 9c | 734.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac6…8353backed Yes | 9c | 734.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…08c3backed Yes | 9c | 729$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…392ebacked Yes | 9c | 729$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed No | 9c | 714.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…8085backed Yes | 9c | 707$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…dafdbacked Yes | 9c | 707$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…67babacked Yes | 9c | 703$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,288.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…a30abacked Yes | 9c | 696$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c3…47c5backed Yes | 9c | 695.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,007.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…5cb0backed Yes | 9c | 690$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,005.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a13…60f8backed Yes | 9c | 688$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…7e0dbacked Yes | 9c | 687$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 680.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…be3bbacked No | 8c | 654.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…b95dbacked Yes | 8c | 575$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…dd4ebacked Yes | 8c | 570$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…c55dbacked Yes | 9c | 565$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…9454backed Yes | 9c | 565$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…ce8cbacked Yes | 9c | 564$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,159.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…1eb3backed Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 7cpaid | +739.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…71a7backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…13a2backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +487.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…8b7dbacked No | 9c | 464.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 440.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…7c02backed No | 3c | 414.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 64c | 391.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 318$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 80c | 305$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.05 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 301.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 300.2$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.92 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…25b6backed No | 6c | 291.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 267.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…309bbacked No | 7c | 267.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…1ca4backed No | 12c | 257.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked No | 9c | 254.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 27c | 253.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…55b8backed No | 9c | 224.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 8c | 219.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…b2ddbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 173.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 26c | 171.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 162.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 18c | 155.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…bbcfbacked No | 17c | 143.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 77c | 130.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 127.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…a2f1backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 10c | 105.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 78c | 81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…e221backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…c497backed No | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 51.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked No | 43c | 46.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 43c | 42.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5022…caadbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.