Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd2a193eba83cf567eec2e0f1754cdea862e6829c89dbc476d7e911ad89e0f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2121…c832backed Yes | 5c | 1,411$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…5859backed Yes | 5c | 1,411$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…03afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,404$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…4ffcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,393$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…4197backed Yes | 5c | 1,390$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…316cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,371$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…9103backed Yes | 5c | 993$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…38c5backed Yes | 5c | 990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…43fabacked Yes | 5c | 985$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…cc84backed Yes | 5c | 970$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…493bbacked Yes | 5c | 969.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…5db8backed Yes | 5c | 955$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…02d5backed Yes | 5c | 949.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efe…76e3backed Yes | 5c | 922$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…fd2cbacked Yes | 5c | 921$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…8211backed Yes | 5c | 909$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 11c | 897.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…4249backed Yes | 5c | 728$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…5087backed Yes | 4c | 728$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 544.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 8c | 294.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 288.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 205.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 6c | 190.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 13c | 130.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…1f63backed Yes | 15c | 83.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 50c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.