Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986df651f6e33bab486409c2c91ccf408d684f2b8574308d22d148f91c3baf94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 65c | 4,199$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.35 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 59c | 2,294$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.76 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,614$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…9339backed No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…85a0backed No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…00c1backed No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked No | 9c | 1,367$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…1434backed Yes | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 61c | 678.05$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 44c | 615.02$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.7 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 35c | 549.55$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…de8bbacked Yes | 34c | 462.08$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 406.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.11 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 348.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 38c | 306.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed No | 64c | 296.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 43c | 224.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 76c | 208$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked No | 39c | 187.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 10c | 140.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +936.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed No | 61c | 115.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 97.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 86.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 86.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…bcc6backed Yes | 58c | 74.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 58.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…44d9backed Yes | 47c | 42.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…b462backed Yes | 47c | 42.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…5bf2backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Yes | 74c | 29.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked No | 72c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 16?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 16?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 16?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.