TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b6c…70a8backed Yes0c85,614$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes64c9,999$6,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,438.218728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No29c6,744$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,758.733622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes17c4,419$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.223721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes54c4,086$2,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.41250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fdb…38e1backed Yes70c2,985$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes45c2,500$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.9910143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No72c2,220$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.867545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No31c2,056$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.324131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d06…ec01backed Yes67c1,784$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.752250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No47c1,773$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.288744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f28…ba03backed Yes73c1,748$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+74.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes49c1,728$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8444729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed Yes67c1,440$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.884938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes69c1,183$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.795459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes74c1,053$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.411450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No34c1,021$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.7414141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed Yes64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6404660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No16c998.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.885320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…d8febacked Yes64c946.2$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.971233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+304.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes47c934.79$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5610047%47 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes6c849.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.953636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc91…1a88backed No23c828.75$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.953151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No12c818.87$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.6416247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x479f…5bfcbacked No29c805.84$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.57850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+46.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No42c750.4$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.472020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c04…6e10backed No29c678.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes31c655.71$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.454122%9 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No72c640.05$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.848558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes75c639.18$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.333262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes75c621.42$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.934755.3%26 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…81e2backed No36c570.91$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c541.76$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2725422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ab…1072backed No49c538.11$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked Yes18c528.11$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes22c511.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.421541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda57…e628backed No43c510.86$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.75048%24 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No31c500.25$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.714437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Yes50c500$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No46c479.58$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.784759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No34c440.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.0911942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes25c424.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.73315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088d…773dbacked No74c370.74$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes55c365.02$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.93273.7%1 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes64c311.39$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.43447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd05d…88c5backed Yes40c299.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes71c299.15$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.257745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88aa…ea6fbacked Yes79c274.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.992268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes55c259.69$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.975846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe172…5483backed No44c244.42$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+89.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b93…b57cbacked No36c231.32$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked No56c228.92$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.315219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb4…1231backed Yes38c223.77$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaea…90dcbacked No32c216.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes52c208.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No21c207$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.383495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x711e…8858backed Yes79c206.2$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.912050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+207.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…40d2backed Yes65c202.81$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa363…a3fdbacked Yes44c194.25$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes9c191.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.322910.3%3 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No26c191.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.65922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No48c185.02$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x237e…fb35backed Yes23c180.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No20c154.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.75560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+142.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes68c153.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed No30c153.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.933619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No25c153$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.876927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0713…c185backed Yes41c151.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes10c149.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.825822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes22c147.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No53c146.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ba…9255backed Yes20c145.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.522030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38f…4f52backed Yes35c145.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.451154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x119c…ab2abacked Yes69c142.8$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes38c134.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.71683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.44per pick39cpaid+133.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde1a…35eebacked No29c131.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c64…36b4backed Yes51c125.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked Yes78c124.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.843271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes56c118.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.681752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7afe…6620backed Yes41c115.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a7…74e1backed No54c111.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.27475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c5…d03abacked Yes67c110$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes55c109.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8463…f801backed Yes27c106.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041c…70fabacked Yes69c105.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.05119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-87.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x65dd…4664backed Yes72c105.71$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.861872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2618144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd32…50cabacked Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+101%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x321d…ed56backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No25c99.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.358744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes35c93.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.063531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb23…b501backed Yes34c90.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.77825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f6…72a6backed No33c81.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.825100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+113.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes67c76.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.513134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb449…23fbbacked Yes67c74.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x553a…39dcbacked Yes41c73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.