TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes27c6,395$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes15c3,453$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.795320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No76c2,825$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.088744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1251250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes4c2,216$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.464729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fd…3ecfbacked Yes33c2,011$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.271040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No66c2,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.454938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes19c1,744$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3210521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes31c1,677$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d06…ec01backed Yes19c1,263$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.862250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes22c1,101$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.518728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes4c1,060$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8813134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes21c1,047$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.16273.7%1 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd689…c745backed No75c1,038$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0474…9ffabacked No73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No55c965.75$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.428744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaea…90dcbacked No55c935.2$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.841353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c839.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.633283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No74c811.59$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.973622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c2c…a94cbacked No76c800.14$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes21c764.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1410047%47 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x196c…0ffdbacked No72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1963447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…d8febacked Yes28c676.17$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+304.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes31c610.26$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.84755.3%26 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No67c603.17$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.782020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72ae…1dbabacked Yes27c591.17$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.292055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a7…74e1backed No79c541.01$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab90…a576backed Yes17c499.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes30c490.78$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No55c476.1$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.254131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde1a…35eebacked Yes10c446.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No62c394.41$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1814141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ec…e48cbacked No77c377.59$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes7c368.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.986114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e9…40dfbacked Yes27c330.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e9…30ccbacked Yes45c311.32$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6914335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed No67c299.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea2…de87backed Yes33c275.24$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc91…1a88backed No72c267.14$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.243151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes20c266.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.153262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf28e…40d2backed Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6f…f5c1backed No78c219.29$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.821861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…7fcabacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ea…6765backed No71c197.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.31977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+75.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes6c190.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4110338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No58c187.76$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.318558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee1…0de9backed No62c166.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.741338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11a2…b4e5backed No70c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97b7…6843backed No79c149.72$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5592…737cbacked Yes32c114.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x711e…8858backed No68c114.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.032050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+207.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ba…9255backed Yes12c109.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.862030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes13c105.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c5…d03abacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x321d…ed56backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes33c96.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6111942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes26c93.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed Yes27c80.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.185127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes28c80.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.228643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes20c75.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b6…80adbacked No69c69.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c67.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4619336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes16c65.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1411430.7%35 W · 79 L-15.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6be6…8742backed No74c65.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1093…9a10backed Yes35c62.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2e…2ed6backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked Yes30c59.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes24c55.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5175…1546backed No52c47.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a58…4ababacked No57c46.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x898e…31c4backed Yes34c45.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9288…b4b8backed Yes43c42.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8168…7837backed No68c28.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.162850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No55c23.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.662050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…510dbacked No70c21.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c18.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.522166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb449…23fbbacked No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.