TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8639…fb86backed Yes9c1,469$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.44224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-92.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c1,200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0919011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed Yes13c1,157$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes11c1,150$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.96825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes14c1,111$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes15c1,054$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.321040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed Yes12c1,029$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.431735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes16c981$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes11c956$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes15c951$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes16c945$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ae…e13abacked Yes11c938$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes14c907$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes13c867$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9160%0 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4bd2backed Yes11c861$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes12c782$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.181030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes11c777.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.81637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…697abacked Yes6c773.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed Yes11c772$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Yes15c707$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.05540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes14c706$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes9c694.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.49637.5%36 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes11c645$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes13c584$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.921040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes11c581$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.911225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes11c559$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.491968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick40cpaid+93.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes11c551$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+81.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c542.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4528826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes12c523$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17a…b7a0backed Yes4c505.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301f…8412backed Yes5c489.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes11c483$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+78.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes15c481$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes8c472.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.55836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c472.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.881,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes15c442$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes17c438$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c422.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes8c414$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.122944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes12c407$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c395.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.013042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked Yes14c383$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.621250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes11c380$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes15c379$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.441952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes12c379$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.481338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed Yes16c360$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+75.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes14c347$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes4c343.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.757035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed Yes12c342$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.04837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes11c340.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes11c340$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c337.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.164157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dcc…00c9backed Yes25c327.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e36…1f39backed Yes6c310.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2180…5345backed Yes6c308.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…d68ebacked Yes15c301$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3925731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes8c288$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes11c286$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.461450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes11c283$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.131861.1%11 W · 7 L+5.4wins+0.30per pick31cpaid+144.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes14c276$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.641181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick44cpaid+98.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed Yes12c256$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes11c253$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83100%0 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b56…eb9dbacked Yes7c242.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked Yes11c234$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes16c234$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes8c232.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.86545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c230.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.252977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed Yes17c230$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+73.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes8c226$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Yes14c226$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.041040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes14c225$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes11c219$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.09837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed Yes16c219$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.041020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes13c218$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes14c212$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.681060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+77.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fce…5e39backed Yes5c200.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes12c195.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.064619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes11c194$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes9c178$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.021533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes7c176$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes7c174.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes8c152$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes10c144$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.081747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes12c144$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df7…c1bdbacked Yes9c141.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes8c138$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes9c135$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed Yes11c133$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes8c132.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes15c121$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+105%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes13c116$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.081827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…89f6backed Yes11c111.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+120%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes12c110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21010%1 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick35cpaid-83.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x834d…5dacbacked Yes11c107.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes10c102.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.