Us Politics · resolved market
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8673c0d2cd7e20b214ff94c074b1b9f36bc7a8164948e49054bdb7a4c986feeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,779$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Yes | 4c | 2,502$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,018$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 2c | 2,004$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,967$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 1,903$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…46b6backed Yes | 8c | 1,514$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,493$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…d769backed Yes | 3c | 1,232$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 12c | 1,158$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…07a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,054$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 719.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 663.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 632.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…4353backed Yes | 2c | 627.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…d6c8backed Yes | 4c | 619.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 591.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 542.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 487.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…2580backed Yes | 10c | 483.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…ced7backed Yes | 2c | 478.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…87b5backed Yes | 4c | 477.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764c…60d8backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 11c | 390.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f10…b7b6backed Yes | 3c | 294.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 4c | 271.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 232.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 10c | 203.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 188.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed Yes | 12c | 160.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 129.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…d86bbacked Yes | 9c | 122.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…8838backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.