TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5a3…883abacked No72c2,418$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.797462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes17c1,769$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8235341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No68c1,314$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.556654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes22c1,234$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+95.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa040…2181backed Yes8c1,095$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes30c1,066$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.676437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No35c1,000$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.3321426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe567…0d3fbacked Yes8c985.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6582…48c6backed Yes8c920$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd794…8e94backed Yes7c920$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9c…c369backed Yes8c920$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde20…e101backed Yes7c920$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8f…c84ebacked Yes7c917$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb89a…3aa8backed Yes7c917$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1056…e6cabacked Yes7c914$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de9…1abbbacked Yes7c913.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4b…30f2backed Yes7c910$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2610…ad15backed Yes7c910$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+557.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a85…e9cebacked Yes7c908$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…f086backed Yes7c908$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+557.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e54…c6f4backed Yes8c870$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d4…a3cbbacked Yes8c760$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes24c559.06$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8111645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed Yes9c503.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+79.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3034…dd88backed Yes35c428.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes30c371.81$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.162416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes53c324.07$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.092352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes17c295.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.856136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes26c267.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.726944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes17c264.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.911024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No78c256.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.076142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes9c245.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.37130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No48c201$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.899962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No70c186.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.482934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes12c184.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1913128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes39c180.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.773351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No78c154.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.369475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes13c151.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes54c146.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.517848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab79…f2edbacked Yes21c127.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2d…8147backed Yes31c100.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Yes63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes24c99.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes24c98.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…0738backed No75c98.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No77c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes50c88.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked Yes23c80.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No40c77.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.444628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Yes37c76.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.025147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c71.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2411840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb119…680bbacked Yes24c68.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.441353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9764…a691backed Yes30c59.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes63c58.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes65c56.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6212225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce8b…738abacked No77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes38c52.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+80.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-73.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cad…d424backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c7c…232dbacked Yes32c48.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c47.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa99c…08b4backed No77c45.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd82…8f2abacked No76c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf853…21d0backed No72c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes64c42.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes35c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+54.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e68…b800backed Yes27c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b5…e85ebacked Yes30c39.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848f…612fbacked Yes55c39.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3831…afedbacked Yes31c39.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No51c39.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.213865.8%25 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c69…06afbacked No78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No78c32.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.193831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes50c31.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked No32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbe…2520backed No76c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed No46c30.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes51c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes45c22.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-64.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes65c21.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No79c21.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.473246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+43.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa528…e221backed Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37af…2f21backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd862…f135backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd130…ad19backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257b…d288backed Yes64c19.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.232272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.354544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.