Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9391cd96f6460f60435128788264ad7abf7fc7480a3aef5edec6267d98d531b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ae…6138backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…4bf9backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b64…cb08backed Yes | 6c | 779$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…30fdbacked Yes | 7c | 779$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 30c | 513.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 66c | 489.39$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.39 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…232dbacked Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 31c | 245.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…58fcbacked Yes | 33c | 204.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 135.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 115.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 22c | 55.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…8687backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…4b13backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…190cbacked No | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 79c | 23.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…c13bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Myrne by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Myrne by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.