UFC · resolved market
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8df575004b59dc5bcab852b178fa46b2f90f408c820ca9a1a39cbdcee75117d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9950…6d78backed No | 5c | 3,033$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 3c | 2,712$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 2,196$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4532…a636backed Yes | 73c | 1,522$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 5c | 1,409$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,855.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Yes | 67c | 1,348$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.91 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…9aaabacked No | 1c | 1,337$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 55c | 1,191$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +617.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…72a4backed No | 2c | 995.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 25c | 993.4$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked No | 14c | 874$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 2c | 696.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 3c | 651.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 3c | 619.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 569.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 9c | 550.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…2ee1backed No | 3c | 549.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 25c | 440.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…3ee1backed No | 12c | 420.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 3c | 398.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 68c | 290.73$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 70c | 266.26$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 58c | 223.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…7baabacked Yes | 56c | 177.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 122.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 18c | 113.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 76c | 94.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 93.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 79.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 40c | 77.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 70c | 76.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 40c | 73.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…77a8backed Yes | 25c | 71.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…e9fabacked No | 30c | 66.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…fce9backed No | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 36.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked No | 75c | 29.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 50c | 27.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…52c5backed Yes | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 61c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…2d38backed Yes | 71c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.