TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No28c574.37$159 inWon+$415.371471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked No64c434.34$276 inWon+$157.931872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes56c389.14$217 inLost-$217.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes40c262.5$105 inLost-$1052254.5%12 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes13c230.75$30 inLost-$302814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked No77c160.6$124 inWon+$36.6988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No43c145.33$63 inWon+$82.3447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes47c144.68$68 inLost-$681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes64c100$64 inLost-$64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes78c100$78 inLost-$78.41040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xede3…e3f2backed Yes54c100$54 inLost-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c86.68$32 inWon+$54.387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked No27c85$23 inWon+$61.771827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0546…1e0abacked No53c60$32 inWon+$28.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fd…0147backed No28c59.98$17 inWon+$43.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No32c53.14$17 inWon+$36.1422030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed No48c40$19 inWon+$20.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes47c39.48$19 inLost-$18.5516015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbb10…0508backed No33c31$10 inWon+$20.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes55c20$11 inLost-$10.91656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No52c20$10 inWon+$9.61827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ecf…9311backed No50c20$10 inWon+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da7…4147backed No53c20$11 inWon+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed No52c19.99$10 inWon+$9.62138.1%8 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-39.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.