TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,203 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes57c2,190$1,253 inWon+$937.661872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No14c1,226$168 inLost-$167.71520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed No46c1,096$500 inLost-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38e…5062backed No49c999.99$490 inLost-$490425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No50c240$121 inLost-$12147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No22c136.36$30 inLost-$302814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…4c28backed Yes47c110$51 inWon+$58.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed No26c105$27 inLost-$27.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick35cpaid+197.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7609…1443backed Yes47c60$28 inWon+$31.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No30c43.2$13 inLost-$12.92416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes33c40.29$13 inWon+$27.083517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4620…fd87backed Yes50c40$20 inWon+$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes47c35$17 inWon+$18.423130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No45c33.02$15 inLost-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb10…0508backed No50c31$16 inLost-$15.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92e…7f60backed Yes43c30$13 inWon+$17.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes49c21.4$10 inWon+$10.91471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No71c21.11$15 inLost-$14.971872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon+$10560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No50c20$10 inLost-$107121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes62c18.18$11 inWon+$6.961968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.