TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,776 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes5c1,995$101 inLost-$1011471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes6c600$38 inLost-$382821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked No63c281$178 inWon+$102.85988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadf1…6460backed Yes6c201.62$13 inLost-$12.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+89.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes19c80$15 inLost-$14.94626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No43c73.59$32 inWon+$41.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+62.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f3…fc98backed Yes37c50$18 inLost-$18.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes37c40$15 inLost-$14.82722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes36c40$14 inLost-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No65c25$16 inWon+$8.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.