TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Nicole Kidman be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No14c207.09$30 inLost-$29.9187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c156$32 inLost-$32.0516237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes73c134$98 inWon+$36.32722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes80c40$32 inWon+$8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No34c40$13 inLost-$13.42686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No30c35$11 inLost-$10.54626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f75…3018backed No55c20$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes80c20$16 inWon+$41650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.