Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893b08038bdbfd48e71886c942b38f49de6dc3896645fc64a7b43cfd8c8442e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 3c | 3,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 1,787$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…9b32backed Yes | 63c | 1,196$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed No | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 926.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 57c | 854.74$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.92 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 19c | 760.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 677.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.5 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 677$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 63c | 600$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.52 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 551.55$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 3c | 346.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…b2b6backed Yes | 72c | 295$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 25c | 293.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 290$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes | 15c | 290$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 163.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 57c | 161.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 15c | 130.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 124.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 119.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…123cbacked Yes | 24c | 119.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 73c | 118.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 63c | 112.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 108$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 80.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 57c | 75.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 73.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 63.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 35c | 62.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 45c | 56.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 48c | 49.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed No | 79c | 32.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 59c | 23.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.