Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf655aaabd447bd3e5c9c6a6747934f91c7638b22e6c96f33bad271a3d13c88e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 2,056$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…864ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,000$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…9b32backed Yes | 63c | 1,885$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,725$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 7c | 1,422$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…4266backed No | 9c | 1,273$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 33c | 1,198$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4e…35a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2922…b3cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073f…7618backed Yes | 6c | 1,014$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…7349backed Yes | 6c | 1,012$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…d92abacked Yes | 6c | 992$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,400%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…1713backed Yes | 6c | 988$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…a6eebacked Yes | 6c | 982$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…34e2backed No | 3c | 902.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…3dc1backed No | 4c | 819.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…a8f5backed Yes | 10c | 752$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…75c8backed Yes | 6c | 702$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…67babacked Yes | 6c | 702$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,288.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…6ce3backed No | 4c | 672.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 662.5$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…121ebacked No | 4c | 621.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8703…48e6backed No | 4c | 585.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 546.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 33c | 525$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 33c | 525$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 506.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 475.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…123cbacked Yes | 13c | 437.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…8741backed No | 8c | 419.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…aff4backed No | 11c | 409.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f2…fe97backed No | 3c | 399.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 79c | 397.41$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 14c | 382.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a0…0231backed No | 3c | 358.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 31c | 319.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…e5a1backed No | 7c | 303.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…2ba2backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 37c | 299.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…089ebacked Yes | 77c | 297.11$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…2943backed No | 10c | 293.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…a7b1backed No | 7c | 289.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…d357backed No | 4c | 269.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…a3ddbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 184.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 173.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 169.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 70c | 159.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 153.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 62c | 130.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 124.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 14c | 105.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…0eafbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +402.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…f4e2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +585.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked No | 39c | 56.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…f2edbacked Yes | 69c | 42.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.