Music · resolved market
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ada406aaece5debc09a33913e0b9a0ccfe3e299dd1269966632cc8ae233fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 72c | 8,494$6,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 61c | 2,500$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.99 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 8c | 2,300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 9c | 900$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 7c | 517.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.84 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 484.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 8c | 447.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…4659backed No | 10c | 287.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 7c | 280.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 37c | 272.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…f209backed Yes | 77c | 265.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 18c | 160.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…378ebacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 33c | 112.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 20c | 111.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…0b39backed No | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…b54ebacked No | 33c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Australia come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.