Music · resolved market
Will Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c4ffa48e7f1790cfcc2739f1a055cc49384f167751df6bb3a104227eaac5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc39f…136abacked Yes | 23c | 488.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +137%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 77c | 417.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 78c | 319.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 292.14$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 193.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…499bbacked Yes | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 12c | 179.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…0e8dbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…d1efbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…dd79backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…72fabacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 79c | 89.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…7e9fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…ee9bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…85a6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…0887backed Yes | 32c | 61.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 78c | 52.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…7e69backed Yes | 20c | 51.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 52c | 23.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Australia come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.