AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b572f14a93e1d3eb1fb9424c684bbf602539fb02111c971c2936aaf69812ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 69c | 3,815$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.66 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 66c | 2,346$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.07 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 60c | 2,027$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.82 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 25c | 1,272$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.63 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 65c | 1,144$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.97 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 72c | 903$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 74c | 851$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.66 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 40c | 836$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.29 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…45e6backed Yes | 30c | 525$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…b65ebacked Yes | 30c | 525$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 507.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 403.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 25c | 358$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 78c | 338.64$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 61c | 322.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 80c | 311.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 266$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 14c | 258$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 31c | 230.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 44c | 202.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 187.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 184.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 43c | 179.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 59c | 169.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 28c | 160.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 141.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 62c | 134.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 132.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 112.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 30c | 110.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 27c | 110.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 102.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 74c | 99.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 61c | 98.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 94.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 88.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 80.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed Yes | 68c | 74.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 26c | 71.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 60c | 55.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 55.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 22c | 52.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 43c | 44.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 62c | 43.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 79c | 42.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 38.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 31c | 37.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.