AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572d474a2eaef4e5f26c31a3129e7d089883cddfd120d9ab5546d99953cc97b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 17c | 969.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 69c | 718.49$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.06 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 4c | 580.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 507.22$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 499.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 6c | 479.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 12c | 426.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 34c | 313.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 19c | 303.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 302.88$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 22c | 298.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 279.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 11c | 255.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 152.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 150.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 137.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 73c | 112.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…0e73backed Yes | 50c | 110.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 25c | 53.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 52.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 72c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.