TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No19c3,703$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.068225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No12c3,092$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7129423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes75c2,841$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.5329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes4c1,700$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.6580%4 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.68per pick12cpaid+851%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes38c1,687$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.841560%9 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+119.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c1,496$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9816737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9732…cd57backed Yes1c1,458$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.331100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+10,316.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes79c1,313$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.645234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes73c1,245$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.268247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf50f…ccc1backed Yes79c1,147$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2116…eb8fbacked Yes2c1,141$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+1,937%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80aa…e8eabacked Yes3c1,042$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.741100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,621%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No24c994.89$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8212442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0443…2221backed No34c851.06$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed Yes4c793.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.08580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+754.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5005…23febacked Yes2c688.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.991100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,821.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c577.09$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.211,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No10c425.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.683545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c420.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2110436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes60c400$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1594553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No12c379$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.666747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No14c373.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.536639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No14c370.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.74436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x800e…691bbacked Yes42c320$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No17c304.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5329642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c280.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5611924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No17c271.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.610042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…37b7backed No49c268.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No24c258$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4210339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No16c255$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.338442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No9c245$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.662686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad64…c614backed Yes58c240$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes57c240$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No19c226.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.833542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes67c224$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9226431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes33c217.16$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No16c217$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.777537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x998b…db96backed No14c203.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes74c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4810537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No18c199.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.214748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No22c148.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No12c135.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2723321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed Yes73c134.84$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No24c134.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9310645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes78c128$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.555234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fa…6ee7backed Yes79c125.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No26c123.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.162356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe513…9675backed No22c123.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No17c121.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.149951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c117.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.416015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No14c116.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.134843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b0…7219backed No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No10c103.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.551127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c86.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes80c85.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+90.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes79c83.52$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5215149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No18c79.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes40c78.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.923625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477e…23b3backed Yes68c73.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.68666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ff…5d9cbacked No18c73.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No35c61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.354841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.448461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No28c54.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5be…0e42backed Yes69c53.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d48…678cbacked No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661a…e9e8backed No23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.11471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa59e…73cabacked No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a12…37cabacked Yes72c45.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No54c42.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.962572%18 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes49c35.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes72c34.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.966137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes72c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.963158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No48c30.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.444623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes78c23.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.092123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Yes64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71bb…24b7backed Yes64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.