Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe06c1db65349c4f1805ac819f626decaff8384dbd72c50d9f8e4456dbb286c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca51…7e08backed Yes | 0c | 39,520$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 3,532$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.2 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 17c | 3,154$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.91 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 11c | 2,186$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.34 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 19c | 2,162$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.54 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,468$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed Yes | 18c | 1,260$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,123$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 36c | 1,047$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.81 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 23c | 1,007$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 74c | 829.45$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 805.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 645.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 641.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 18c | 491.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 481.55$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 474.25$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 350.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 18c | 317.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 22c | 303.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 28c | 269.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 241.64$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 241.15$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 80c | 240$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Yes | 19c | 235.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 27c | 205.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…33d0backed Yes | 21c | 191.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Yes | 20c | 177.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…7a58backed Yes | 22c | 125.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 123.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…f62ebacked Yes | 16c | 123.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 122.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 23c | 119.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 20c | 112.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 110.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 26c | 106.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed Yes | 20c | 102.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 31c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 30c | 100.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 21c | 98.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…0e42backed Yes | 18c | 91.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Yes | 18c | 81.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 79.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 17c | 68.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 21c | 63.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 20c | 57.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 75c | 51.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…00ecbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 39.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 65c | 38.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…3a43backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?this page
- Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?Yes won
- Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.