Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331e16ffd77fadb2e80aaf59a18e497faac433311e387f0abcc3c7fb1f170069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 47c | 4,387$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.87 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 25c | 4,112$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 8c | 2,563$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…ea89backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 47c | 1,276$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 47c | 1,235$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.34 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 19c | 1,026$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes | 17c | 1,014$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 887.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 842.62$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 16c | 790.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 768.61$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 79c | 645.56$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 3c | 603.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 66c | 370$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 4c | 369.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 335.58$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 5c | 319.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 76c | 305.04$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 17c | 301.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 289.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 17c | 273.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 51c | 219.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 181.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 66c | 178$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 25c | 149.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 16c | 139.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 117.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Yes | 52c | 116.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 113.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 26c | 110.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…f92fbacked Yes | 41c | 106.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 81.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 50c | 77.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 49c | 69.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 64.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 53.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 53.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 27c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 53c | 48.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1e…f51cbacked No | 50c | 45.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 78c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 32c | 38.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 37.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 29c | 35.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 32c | 30.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…f30cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfc…678ebacked No | 50c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 36c | 28.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 75c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 76c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?this page
- Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?Yes won
- Will David Oxman be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No won
- Will Gabriel Caceres be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No won
- Will Morgan Cephas be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No won
- Will Robin Toldens be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No won
- Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.