TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No38c26,058$10,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,005.213129%9 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes63c23,868$14,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,871.4416651.2%85 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes69c7,959$5,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.456341.3%26 W · 37 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes62c7,074$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.7315845.6%72 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes64c7,043$4,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.871526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes48c5,373$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.7515933.3%53 W · 106 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No39c5,100$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.191118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4205…128ebacked No37c5,000$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes63c4,618$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.915655.8%87 W · 69 L+19.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes69c4,507$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.422461.2%137 W · 87 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed No40c3,100$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01da…ea89backed Yes33c2,905$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes61c2,327$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed No16c2,300$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3652147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c1,915$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.0220139.3%79 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No41c1,803$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.775133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes53c1,298$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.235141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed No26c1,171$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No38c975.9$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.031020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No21c900.78$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.714228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No39c837.53$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.865836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No27c762.13$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.576536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9912…4f03backed Yes52c708.04$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes61c694$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0621733.2%72 W · 145 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Yes41c651.14$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.79944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No39c649.94$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.182050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4590…c7e4backed Yes62c648.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.58887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Yes61c645$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Yes67c589.86$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.852015%3 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No38c584$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.192934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked No36c575.54$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.454060%24 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No16c563.85$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.291827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed No40c541.24$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes38c530.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.981833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes61c528$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.451346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes60c526$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No32c500.1$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.496232.3%20 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c500$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.734634.7%120 W · 226 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3368…2079backed Yes67c499.99$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No47c465.52$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7911539.1%45 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes64c416.36$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.013336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5c8…430cbacked Yes79c398.74$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed No29c395.41$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Yes59c390$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No44c373.65$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3336033.3%120 W · 240 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb092…08fdbacked Yes50c370.73$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No50c369.77$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0918341%75 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No28c335.58$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.444156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes62c321.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.033759.5%22 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes33c315$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0510762.6%67 W · 40 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No38c300$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.11711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes64c279.23$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.722245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No9c275.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.943243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No37c257.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.054139%16 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.535740.1%143 W · 214 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Yes59c247$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.271266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e55…0f06backed Yes27c241.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes61c236.6$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.285450%27 W · 27 L+10.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+73.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes26c222.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No38c222$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.922729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes38c212.09$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.812138.8%47 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Yes61c206$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.551442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.326346%29 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805438.9%21 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Yes59c197.97$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.971361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes50c187.25$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5223948.5%116 W · 123 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes31c170.59$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.766046.7%28 W · 32 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+63.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Yes59c169.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes36c167.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9917343.4%75 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes59c165$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.494153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes63c158.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.982425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes60c157.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes63c148.62$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.144334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed Yes59c133$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes22c133$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.951741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No77c128$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7625562.7%160 W · 95 L+26.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No37c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6110949.5%54 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes32c118.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3124932.9%82 W · 167 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c114$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4712548%60 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f63…ef47backed Yes61c112.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes42c111.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Yes61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.122347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked Yes61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes27c100.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.665937.3%22 W · 37 L+7.4wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9366…a9f6backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14fe…cdb9backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.69453.2%50 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.95100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a9e…b051backed Yes73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c92.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1319010%19 W · 171 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No40c90.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0736822%81 W · 287 L-27.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes65c89.86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No34c83.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85455.6%30 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa70…1c50backed Yes61c82.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+123.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed Yes43c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.411030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8df1…8fe1backed Yes63c79.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes38c78.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.