China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd32732b34c4abb8816ecae32be7dd37fe5e52809f47e06585a60739fb19e8c77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 66c | 1,144$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…f8b3backed No | 64c | 800$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 232.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 67c | 231.2$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 53c | 209.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…0627backed No | 27c | 208.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 57c | 201.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 16c | 182.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 68c | 177.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 156.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.41 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 16c | 143.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 54c | 143.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed No | 65c | 126.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 32c | 116.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 95.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 87.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 68.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 63c | 56.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 25c | 56.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 24c | 41.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 66c | 33.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 67c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a6…8ddebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 200mm or more of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 150mm of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.