Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ceb1a8663f08d6d25b692032f4b80633dd4d1ad7295a9419ce34e57c676a585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62bc…5053backed No | 74c | 5,290$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 49c | 4,736$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.99 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 4,727$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.59 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 52c | 2,309$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.72 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 55c | 1,196$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,060$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked Yes | 69c | 727.01$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.54 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289f…4f9abacked Yes | 25c | 627.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 44c | 527.5$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 44c | 505$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 500$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 42c | 490.37$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…3b66backed Yes | 61c | 379.62$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 370.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 61c | 346.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 35c | 315$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 78c | 299.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 51c | 298.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 42c | 286.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 276.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 11c | 262$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 258.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 251.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 243.46$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 238.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 7c | 205.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 200.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 16c | 200.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 31c | 190.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 68c | 159.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 150.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 36c | 132.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 132$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 108.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 13c | 108.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 46c | 101.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 90.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 22c | 75.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 50c | 71.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 58.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 69c | 56.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 50c | 55.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 50.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 47.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…adb8backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…f25ebacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8113…22cbbacked Yes | 67c | 25.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 63c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.