Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae57dbbdcd47bf37834186a5df99440e42f8448afc2a771c585adb50cd4358ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 71c | 2,338$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 1,467$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.7 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 26c | 973.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.3 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 24c | 946.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.71 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…5053backed No | 70c | 879.6$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 16c | 828.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…2974backed No | 2c | 818.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 3c | 813.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 44c | 654.81$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.89 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked No | 2c | 631.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…e123backed Yes | 49c | 607.21$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 27c | 538.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 60c | 489.97$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…b77dbacked No | 72c | 417$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 9c | 405.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 381.78$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.22 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 12c | 368.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 76c | 363.93$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 25c | 296.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 216.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 191.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 21c | 181.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 68c | 161.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 13c | 133.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 24c | 87.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 68.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 48c | 67.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 74c | 52.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 77c | 52.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 35c | 52.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…b692backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +48%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7d…f1f7backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 26.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -9.7wins | -0.44per pick | 62cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…ed51backed Yes | 66c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.