Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ac84cfc033f0def72d252ff0901ac5e57744cbce8d750c854166235f44b444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 32c | 4,071$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.71 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 21c | 2,885$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.1 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 59c | 2,388$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 21c | 1,826$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 1,708$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.51 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7828…e558backed Yes | 76c | 1,158$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 50c | 875.11$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +206%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 5c | 828.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 58c | 820.75$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.54 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 66c | 618.81$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.27 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 31c | 602$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.68 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 516.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.34 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 8c | 474$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 45c | 427.67$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 67c | 425.82$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.96 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 45c | 406.65$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.74 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 368.36$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 68c | 348.95$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 40c | 341.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.76 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 332.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 313.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 275$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked No | 39c | 265.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 247.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 6c | 226.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 20c | 221.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 216.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 17c | 211$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 59c | 206.05$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 176.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…ed51backed Yes | 64c | 166.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…08efbacked Yes | 69c | 157.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed Yes | 43c | 142.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 42c | 142.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 24c | 140.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 69c | 134.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed40…ff51backed Yes | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 35c | 99.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 16c | 87.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 40c | 84.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…735ebacked Yes | 79c | 84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 74c | 81.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 78c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 74.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 23c | 69.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked No | 34c | 67.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…f77fbacked Yes | 70c | 63.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…33f2backed No | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 40c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…f214backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…f25ebacked Yes | 45c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 32.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 59c | 31.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 61c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…7d5fbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…06cebacked Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 44c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…078abacked Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93e…9c83backed Yes | 78c | 20.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…398ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…797abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.