Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd766b4214254635d98317461ff044ab883848b76a7dcdbba8c16c96645df275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 2c | 21,164$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.28 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 51c | 2,404$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 32c | 1,609$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.09 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,367$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.45 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7828…e558backed No | 71c | 1,114$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 955.28$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 71c | 703.26$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +206%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…115dbacked No | 3c | 611.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 582.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 70c | 500.02$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 441.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 5c | 426.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 61c | 425.89$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 61c | 415.98$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 373.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.71 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 47c | 320.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 31c | 313.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed No | 16c | 302.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 60c | 265.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 240$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 21c | 227.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 226.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 215.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 206.66$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 59c | 196.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 177.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 166.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 77c | 156.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked No | 67c | 136$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 131$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 104.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 90.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 70c | 90.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…1ad0backed Yes | 26c | 71.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 44c | 70.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…b45dbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…51f8backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 53.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…67adbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +241.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…f25ebacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed No | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…39afbacked No | 68c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 20.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -9.7wins | -0.44per pick | 62cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…6fbdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 69cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 59c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…ff8bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.1wins | -0.27per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.