Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3136b7e0f380d307c9ca984638a908d698b39becbde6961dcbe557414853f864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,707 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 25c | 11,459$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.28 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,964$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…5befbacked No | 78c | 743$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…ced4backed Yes | 38c | 344$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…3c06backed Yes | 38c | 336$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…cdf9backed No | 68c | 273$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…569cbacked Yes | 32c | 229$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…6e23backed No | 68c | 207$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…b98ebacked No | 62c | 205$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked No | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…b8c4backed No | 68c | 197$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…bba0backed Yes | 32c | 193$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…8c65backed Yes | 32c | 193$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d96…5f05backed No | 68c | 192$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c32…f79bbacked No | 68c | 192$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…b50abacked No | 62c | 177$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…c640backed Yes | 32c | 164$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…27d6backed Yes | 32c | 156$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…a813backed Yes | 32c | 154$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…74d7backed No | 68c | 152$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e3…f58fbacked No | 62c | 151$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…ae41backed No | 62c | 147$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3807backed Yes | 30c | 143$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…9056backed Yes | 30c | 137$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +391.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 136.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…9445backed Yes | 30c | 128$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…bdcfbacked Yes | 32c | 124$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…7205backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 119.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…94a1backed Yes | 29c | 118$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881d…bf9dbacked Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 26c | 80.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 26c | 80.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 76.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…2817backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 17?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.