AI · resolved market
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690ecb415230b862f523be76deeb42ab62ed00bd6656504cde0b0eed47abc4b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac4f…f7e8backed Yes | 21c | 857$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 80c | 641.74$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 605$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 18c | 458.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 18c | 360$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…1da3backed No | 79c | 146.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2711backed No | 79c | 141.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 17c | 141$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca6…d055backed No | 79c | 139.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…a17bbacked No | 78c | 128.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c57…5c11backed No | 79c | 128.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 80c | 121$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 14c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 17c | 93.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 76.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 68.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 17c | 61.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 56.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…2779backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 36c | 33.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?this page
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.