AI · resolved market
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d66271ef9fc2c01930e67c32f9e1e01c3f656bd7c963c0c17ed510503b48ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 48c | 2,800$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.16 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 7c | 803.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 30c | 555$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 411.67$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 278$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 70c | 263.33$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 177.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…952cbacked No | 72c | 150.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 42c | 54.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d56backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 76c | 47.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…563cbacked Yes | 51c | 37.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…94e1backed No | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?this page
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.