AI · resolved market
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb78ff3b17941d2dc835f0d0d0101519c365c395486b4f979db9a10fa6a4333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 28c | 1,500$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 1,168$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.76 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 52c | 874.74$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 32c | 516.69$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…95e7backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 194$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…b524backed Yes | 65c | 169.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…ffffbacked Yes | 65c | 162.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…d552backed Yes | 65c | 162.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…abaebacked Yes | 65c | 159.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 145.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 28c | 145.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 135.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 37c | 129.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…fde1backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda69…507fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…6528backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b1…9e65backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 30c | 86.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 68c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 51c | 60.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 52.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd63f…9339backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…77a3backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 48.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 54c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 80c | 34.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…8aacbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?this page
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30?No won
- Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.