NBA · resolved market
NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf75fa73eae7b1af823237a046adeb93128a9664f5b19b9fba5aca452a8f9c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 20c | 6,532$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 72c | 1,618$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.63 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 63c | 1,607$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 68c | 1,430$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.06 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 4c | 891.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.44 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 839$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.95 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 38c | 829$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 48c | 690$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.3 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed No | 27c | 660.85$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…4a0ebacked No | 33c | 570$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…be17backed No | 35c | 473$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +117%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 50c | 465.4$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 32c | 404.59$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed No | 38c | 210.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed No | 27c | 184.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 19c | 180.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5b0bbacked No | 40c | 178.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…aa49backed No | 31c | 156.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 27c | 148.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 132$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 126.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…c71ebacked Yes | 71c | 114.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 33c | 113.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 26c | 105.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 104.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 24c | 103.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…65a4backed No | 32c | 103$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 48c | 97.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed No | 33c | 80.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 77c | 77.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…1bccbacked Yes | 58c | 76.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…7cd9backed No | 34c | 59.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 32c | 52.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…f007backed No | 39c | 52.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…61b1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…c497backed Yes | 49c | 20.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…637cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 70c | 19.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…4d9bbacked Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…d052backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.