Token Launches · resolved market
Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00da7db76ea5485d4a1ebaf3f90205ad7c716695c8660c3c9374d9692526413d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 8c | 1,383$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 58c | 1,326$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.17 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 1,138$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.24 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 717.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 73c | 500$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 45c | 441$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 47c | 434.67$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 68c | 295.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 29c | 291.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed Yes | 74c | 269.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 201$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 146.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 79.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 52c | 75.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 35c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 77c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?this page
- Credible FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Credible FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Credible FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Credible FDV above $5M one day after launch?Yes won
- Credible FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Credible FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.