Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a03e6e14094a81d752573c9ea63c3e51ff7692c2d2901143cc5e48afb4bd545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 64c | 875$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.25 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 26c | 766.27$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 73c | 513.06$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 236.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked No | 16c | 198.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 61c | 137.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 27c | 105.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…a88dbacked No | 22c | 76.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 78c | 66.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 66c | 66.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed Yes | 75c | 56.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…849abacked Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…3b92backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 20?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.